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Best Time to Invest in DHA Karachi?


The Real Estate Market always based on long term moves in all over the world. The calculation based on quarterly moves (minimum side). Some time there is volatility in the market and figures changes in few weeks or months. But normally calculate on long term moves.

Real Estate Market in Pakistan

The Real Estate Market in Pakistan also has the same trend of long term moves, in these moves market made the cycle which is based (very interestingly) on decade method. Market moves on decade format and make highs and lows in the same decade, market starts from lowest then touches highest then come again to the lowest level but 2nd lowest level is very much different from the level where market starts the move.

If you are looking to sell or buy property, or want your premises to be rented for residential or commercial purpose, then do checkout the list of DHAToday’s preferred real estate agents in DHA Karachi & Clifton.

The Decade Cycle

This decade cycle witnessed in last three decades from 80s to 2010, and now it turned in the fourth decade, and this 4th decade will be completed in 2020 (According to Study). To understand the minimum and maximum price structure one thing should be clear here that in the same decade market start from its bottom and made highest level till the date, and again market come down. It means market moves like wave from down to up then again down. The price level may differ in different decades.

According to this study, Market start moving in the starting of the decade and goes to its peak in almost middle of the decade and create the history by making life time high prices and after touches the peak prices, market touches the lowest price, the interesting part of this cycle is when market touches its lowest price range, the running prices are double or three times from the highest price of last decade. (Not necessarily in every decade).

The highest price falls in the middle of the decade, and make the life time highest price. One more very interesting thing, necessary to mention here that to follow this technical movement and for completing of the cycle, fundamentals are automatically change and support the market moves.

In the movement of one decade market moves in both the directions, upward and downward, it has bullish trend in one session, and the other session has bearish trend. Normally the span one session is 3 to 4 years for bullish and 5 to 6 years for bearish trend. In between these sessions market also have some short term moves for the price adjustment of different areas, but these short terms move could not make any major changes in the prices.

Example

For better understanding of this theory here we are taking an example of 500 square yard plot in Defence Phase VIII. Specifically in the D cutting area which is now very well known area as Zone B of Phase VIII. The availability of plots in this area is almost all plots of 500 square yards. The total number of plots around 1500 plots of 500 square yards each. Plus few are 1000 square yards plot and cutting of staff plots as well. In this category approximately total 1000 plots of 100/120 and 150 square yards. The major stake are of 100 square yards plots, 120 and 150 are very few.

Price in different Decades for 500 Square Yard Plot

Best Time to Invest in DHA Karachi - Price in different decades for 500 square yard plot

Best Time to Invest in DHA Karachi - Price in different decades for 500 square yard plot

Best Time to Invest in DHA Karachi - Price in different decades for 500 square yard plot

Previous Moves

  • In 1980, moves start in the middle and made the top in 88, and then prices collapsed.
  • In 1990, moves start in the 93 and made the top in 96, and then prices collapsed.
  • In 2000, start from 2001 and made high in 2005, and then prices collapsed.
  • In 2010, start from 2011 and made high in April 2012, and retrace. (Continue)

Current Market

Currently the market is in the start of decade, almost 2nd year in progress. Prices are almost doubled from the lowest level, in many part of Phase VIII, and after touched this level market took some little correction and now it is in still position, further may it will take some more correction but this is the internal small move of the big movement of the market.

Forecast

Forecast for the current decade, market starts moving from 2011 and currently market touched highest price level, after touching this level market is in the process of retracing and market retraced 5 to 10 % in different area because of Budget month. According to decade study market will touch its highest price in 2014 /15, or may be little earlier, and the price will touch around 50-Million for same piece of land, if the history repeats itself. (Technically)

The interesting part is that fundamentals are automatically support to complete this move and market touches the level it should mention by chart.

Note: This article is written by Mr. Muhammad Shafi Jakvani, CEO – Citi Associates. Kindly note that this technical study is based on personal research and forecast for the future, and there is no guarantee of market move. Market could move in any direction and with any changes in prices.

Citi Associates – Real Estate Consultancy, Brokerage and Investment Services.

Comments (18)

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  1. Mohammad Yaseen says:

    Dear Shafi Jakvani,

    Today i visit DHA TODAY. It is very informative regarding price of land and how to proceed in DHA for transfer of properties. Pls accept my heartiest congratulation.

  2. Nadeem Ahmed says:

    What is the logic behind such analysis. This analysis seems to be just a guess. I personally believe that this trend is forced and another move by power corridors of Pakistan to impose Class-Social setup. Had this analysis been true and logical, the prices in all parts of Karachi should have been increased and not just DHA

  3. mas says:

    mr nadeem what do you mean by ‘power corridors of pakistan to impose class-social setup’.Can you explain this.Do you think current hike in dha price is going to last or will it die soon.

  4. FARRUKH MUSTAFA says:

    I BELIEVE THE ABOVE MARKET TREND IS A GUIDE ONLY AND FUTURE PRIDICTION IS VERY DIFICULT, I WANT TO KNOW IF THE CURRENT PRICE IS TOUCHING THE HIGIEST LEVEL SO WOULD IT BE ADVISIBLE TO SALE THE PROPERTY SOON FOR A SALLRIED PESON? PLEASE REPLY.

  5. Imran says:

    As I already said, the current trend will continue till the balloting of the plot numbers by DHA City Administration. This was due to be done in December, 2012 but now let us see when they announce. As far as you are asking whether to keep or sale the plot file, I give you the opinion what I am doing my self. Please keep the plot and do not sell it till you get a total Rs. 2.2. to 2.5 million including what installments you have paid and the ON.

  6. Nabeel says:

    Mr. Imran, give me some idea about current market value of 200Yds residential plot.

  7. Imran says:

    On ON one should not give it below Rs. 1.2 million, however, the upper price may depend upon the buyer. But still it is advisable not to sell it till plot number is balloted as an other 15-25% appreciation is expected then.

  8. Irfan says:

    Very informative. Thanks

  9. Osama Saad Khan says:

    Dear Sir, What are the prices of 100 yds commercial plots (Non Corner) in Sahil commercial street 4, DHA Phase 8. I want to hold my plots till December 2013 what do you think should be the value by Dec 2013.
    Thanks
    Saad

  10. Cyberella says:

    Is it advisable to invest in an apartment by a salaried individual in the present price hiking scenario?

  11. Ali says:

    is it advisable to invest in DHA now? i am salaried person ( salary in 5 digits), can spare Rs.30-40,000 per month in order to invest in a plot for my long term. please advise if there is a possibility.

    thanks,

    Ali

  12. Azfar says:

    How much extra cost is needed for documentation sale deed and middle man commission for a 500yard residential plot?

  13. yousuf says:

    and what is the trend from December 2104 upwards, any body comment pls

  14. Khalid says:

    Can anybody let me know the price range for 300 sq yds and 500 sq yds plots in Sahil extention Phase 8 DHA Karachi

  15. saif says:

    what about phase 9 , it is it best time to invest in it?

  16. googly says:

    Hi everybody, here every one is sharing these kinds of know-how, thus
    it’s pleasant to read this website, and I used to go to see this webpage daily.

  17. Asad Ahmed says:

    200 waly ki kya Market hy ?

  18. Yasser Khan says:

    I am planning to invest in dha phase 8 zone C is it the right time and would there be any improvement in property prices in 2017 late or early 18? should i invest

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